AlphaGen Researchhttps://alphagenresearch.comAlphaGen Notes and briefs on debt, equities, and macro.Aerospace and defense: backlogs are growing faster than saleshttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-21-aerospace-defense-backlogshttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-21-aerospace-defense-backlogsWed, 21 Oct 2026 15:09:59 +0000RTX, GE Aerospace and Northrop Grumman all raised 2026 guidance on Oct. 20, and all three are booking demand faster than they can ship it.Fed plumbing: Treasury's cash account, not QT, is now moving reserveshttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-16-fed-plumbing-tgahttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-16-fed-plumbing-tgaFri, 16 Oct 2026 12:34:06 +0000With the Fed's balance sheet flat and its reverse repo facility nearly empty, swings in Treasury's cash balance are passing straight through to bank reserves.Morning Brief: Regional banks split between clean beats and balance-sheet resetshttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-16-morning-briefhttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-16-morning-briefFri, 16 Oct 2026 11:19:01 +0000Truist takes a $1.4 billion securities loss and sells RAC loans while Citizens, Regions and M&T post cleaner quarters; import prices and industrial production follow, and Europe confirms 3.8% inflation.The Close: Strong top lines, uneven margins from brokers to freighthttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-the-closehttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-the-closeThu, 15 Oct 2026 21:12:10 +0000Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt and Alcoa capped a heavy reporting day, while the Fed's H.15 shows the 2-year yield rising as the long end eased.Crop protection's reset: FMC reprices the channel as Corteva fights in courthttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-crop-protection-resethttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-crop-protection-resetThu, 15 Oct 2026 17:18:55 +0000FMC's guidance cut and Corteva's legal fight over its split show the crop-input business working through price deflation and governance risk at the same time.Beyond the banks: margins, warehouses and temp workers point to a sturdier real economyhttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-beyond-the-bankshttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-beyond-the-banksThu, 15 Oct 2026 16:05:00 +0000UnitedHealth, Prologis and ManpowerGroup add non-financial evidence to a week dominated by bank results and an energy-driven inflation shock.September PPI: the energy shock moves up the pipelinehttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-ppi-pipelinehttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-ppi-pipelineThu, 15 Oct 2026 13:00:00 +0000Producer prices posted their biggest monthly gain since March 2022, and upstream costs are rising far faster than consumer core inflation.Morning Brief: Producer prices and retail sales test the energy shockhttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-morning-briefhttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-morning-briefThu, 15 Oct 2026 12:11:06 +0000September PPI and retail sales land together at 8:30 a.m., with a delayed EIA oil inventory report, Freddie Mac mortgage rates and two bill auctions to follow.Beige Book: the oil shock is everywhere, demand is nothttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-beige-book-energy-vs-demandhttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-15-beige-book-energy-vs-demandThu, 15 Oct 2026 11:14:05 +0000Every District reported higher oil prices feeding costs, while consumer spending was flat and growth mostly slight. That mix shapes the pace of the Fed's tightening.Fannie Mae's new forecast pushes mortgage relief past 2027https://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-14-fannie-forecast-higher-for-longerhttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-14-fannie-forecast-higher-for-longerThu, 15 Oct 2026 01:24:39 +0000One month after projecting rates near 6.7%, Fannie Mae's economists now see 7.5% next year and fewer home sales.EIA's October outlook: oil supply is healing, inventories are nothttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-14-eia-steo-oil-supplyhttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-14-eia-steo-oil-supplyWed, 14 Oct 2026 22:02:51 +0000The Energy Information Administration sees Brent easing from a $114 September to $105 in the fourth quarter, but its own numbers show global stocks still drawing and diesel still tight.The Close: Bank earnings show growth, with credit and compliance bills attachedhttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-14-the-closehttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-14-the-closeWed, 14 Oct 2026 21:13:14 +0000Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, State Street and BlackRock all grew revenue in the third quarter, while the Fed's H.15 shows long Treasury yields easing off last week's levels.Q3 financials: fee engines are carrying the quarterhttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-14-q3-financials-feeshttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-14-q3-financials-feesWed, 14 Oct 2026 20:07:09 +0000BlackRock and State Street posted double-digit revenue growth on market-linked fees, while Bank of America and Wells Fargo show balance-sheet banks paying for compliance and building reserves.September CPI: an energy shock, not a broad reaccelerationhttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-14-cpi-energy-shockhttps://alphagenresearch.com/notes/2026-10-14-cpi-energy-shockWed, 14 Oct 2026 19:40:00 +0000Headline inflation jumped to 3.7% on gasoline, while core held at 2.6%. The gap between the two is now the central question for the Fed on October 28.